John Kerry Joins Isis on Iraq Trip

1. War in Ukraine is favorable to Europe?

   Expert assessment of Academy
   of Geopolitics.

   At
   the end of September, 2014 we expressed the opinion that: “Creation of an
   autonomy in Donetsk and Lugansk” -http://ruskline.ru/special_opinion/2014/09/ukrainskim_vlastyam_vygodno_sozdanie_avtonomii_v_donecke_i_luganske/is favorable to the
   Ukrainian authorities.

   But an assessment of our experts didn’t “reach” politicians in
   Washington, Brussels or in Kiev.

   We would like will address to this subject today, after recent statements of a
   number of representatives of Donetsk that Donetsk agrees to be a part of
   Ukraine as an autonomy.

   The head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Alexander Zakharchenko told that
   doesn’t intend to build the relation with Kiev provided that controlled by the
   armed supporters of DNR of the territory will remain part of Ukraine. Actually,
   contradictions between statements of representatives of DNR, and contradiction
   polar and mutually exclusive (or DNR an autonomy as a part of Ukraine, or this
   unrecognized independent state) proceeds.

   Nevertheless, as the distinct understanding of what to do with Ukraine at the
   moment isn’t present, and peace process within Minsk is at the level of the
   freezing point, due to the need of continuation of diplomatic game directed on
   creations of information simulacrum “we carry out the Minsk
   agreements”, offers which on the one hand allow to express “a
   peacekeeping position” become, but are obviously unacceptable for Kiev as
   statement of a question — “we agree to be in Ukraine, but such, such and
   such”, are torn completely off from the current Ukrainian reality as
   Ukraine at the moment not such as Russia would like or DNR (” the Donetsk
   People’s Republic”) and offered compromise conditions for a number of
   reasons are unacceptable for Kiev. And it I don’t take into account a position
   of the USA, doing this diplomatic “dance” by even more insignificant
   within practical realization as vision of world Predominant force – the USA,
   completely contradicts desires of Russia yet. As there is quite to itself a
   clear understanding of that these offers won’t be realized, the authorities of
   DNR and LNR them periodically and disprove, contradicting it would seem to own
   declared position. In fact, all these statements contradicting each other which
   look a time too schizophrenically, in practice are part of information fog of
   war which has no independent value, and the part of the Russian information
   line on the Ukrainian direction is.

   Therefore it is possible to speak with confidence that will be told about
   “an autonomy of Donbass” still more than once, “federal
   Ukraine” and an imlimentation of the Minsk agreements and after that the
   same Zakharchenko or Carpenter’s will speak so with confidence about
   independence and an invariance of a choice of Donbass made the people. And as
   more than once happened, the gap on time between these statements can make from
   several

   hours about several days. In practice, within the general context of the
   conflict already a little that depends on a position of the leaders of the
   republics, as within the going war, destiny of DNR and LNR, only one of
   parameters (which elimination doesn’t remove all causes of conflict), which is
   defined absolutely by other people, like what communicated in Sochi recently:
   “In Sochi Lavrov presented to Kerry baskets with potatoes and tomatoes,
   and also one box of the Armenian cognac, in replacements by the Crimea!” http://old
   .tweettunnel.com/reverse2.php? textfield=Araik_Sargsyan .

   Some ask why we are sure that Donbass to Ukraine won’t return.

   In our opinion, objective circumstances which mean where as more private a
   hotelok, made this process summer of the past, 2014 impossible still. There is
   such excellent expression “wars nobody wanted — war was inevitable”.
   In Barbara Takman’s book “August guns” on this example it is well
   shown how the governments and the military who were actually defining questions
   of war and peace in Europe tried to avoid war and as the logic of events pushed
   them to war and in the form in which nobody expected it and I didn’t plan (with
   rare exception like Engels or the admiral Fischer). All of that time
   “cunning plans”, like the French plan “17” or the German
   plan of “Shliffen” – failed and at the exit not so that war which was
   planned by “the cleverest people of the time” turned out.

   During an era of domination of analytical strategy and a celebration of a
   determinism, complication of war and world around, sharply reduced predictive
   ability of that time “factories of thought” (which as a rule
   functioned as a part of the General Staff of MO) incapable to foresee even in
   the short term a war development vector:” Crisis in Ukraine was created by
   secret services of NATO” – http://topwar.ru/46632-krizis-v-ukraine-sozdali-sekretnye-sluzhby-nato.html .

   Desires conflicted to objective circumstances which weren’t considered or
   underestimated earlier.

   And in a case with Donbass. Both parties:-both Kiev, and Moscow, during war
   made strategic and tactical mistakes (that is natural because behind any
   planning there are people in all their imperfection) in view of discrepancy of
   desires to a real situation and promptly changing circumstances which sometimes
   passed randomization side as it for example constantly occurs during infinite
   wars in the Middle East. It is possible to speak with confidence that such
   mistakes from both parties are possible and further (owing to besides
   imperfection of a human nature). The USA having missed the Crimea and having
   counted upon sanctions pressure, nowadays too appeared in a situation which was
   hardly predicted at stages of preparation of revolution and Yanukovych’s exile
   from Kiev when there was a confidence that Russia will swallow all this and
   will be wiped. And when the miscalculation became clear and her tried to punish
   “quickly”, it appeared that “quickly” it is impossible.
   Desires at this stage dispersed from opportunities therefore in the American
   military-political establishment and polemic on activization of policy on the
   Ukrainian direction is humming.

   In the same way and at the Kremlin. In the spring of 2014 reunited with the
   Crimea, threw the thesis about “The Russian world”, then were
   frightened of own courage (troops didn’t enter, recognized criminals as
   partners, started suppressing degree of the events) and tried to win back back,
   and any more it didn’t turn out because events developed parallel to painful
   throwings on .https://twitter.com/araik_sargsyan/status/535856500845969409 “enter troops
   and be reconciled with the West” , http://knowpc
   .ru/razgovory-obo-vsem/glavu-administracii-putina-nakazali-za-krym/msg53382/.

   I call all this situational maneuvring in the conditions of a strategic time
   trouble. As chess players speak in this respect:-“The time trouble is
   closer, the it is less than strategy more tactics”. In the conditions of
   the extremely limited time and at promptly changing situation the temptation is
   great to make tactical decisions on the principle “threat answer”. To
   this course of the opponent we go so, to this here so. And here the situation
   unpleasant developed, close to a tsugtsvang, any binding course worsens a
   position. Therefore and it is clear to pass desire the course (in the Kremlin
   it is confused to notorious “mnogokhodovochka”) that the situation as
   if by itself was resolved or the opponent “blurted out”. Are in
   passing constantly confused in questions — roofing felts of war want to avoid,
   roofing felts on the contrary — better for it will be prepared. The confusion
   in such questions results from absence of “the cunning plan of
   Putin”, but not owing to his existence with which everyone simply tries to
   prove to give more logic to the events because for many the thought what not
   all events are under control, in itself is intolerable.

   Long time was considered that it is possible to agree with opponents from Kiev,
   made concessions, limited support — it didn’t yield results. Then under
   pressure of circumstances began from this that remained from fragments of the
   previous policy, started constructing two new states – DNR (Donetsk) and LNR
   (Lugansk) which else in February, 2014 and close weren’t planned in the form in
   which they exist now. Then within attempts to freeze the conflict and notorious
   “truces”, tried to let off steam and to tighten time in attempts to
   achieve change of a situation to avoid ill-fated “fork” between war
   and capitulation. Than all this ended, it is known. Therefore, everyone can see
   in a situation on Donbass anything — both plums and progress forward because at
   the same time manage to build the state and to declare that it not the state,
   but certain areas as a part of Ukraine. In my opinion, that build the state
   there, as if hints, that if seriously were going to give, there just the
   opposite shouldn’t be built the state. I prefer to look not at words here, and
   at affairs. Affairs are that that Donbass continues “to sail” from
   Ukraine in uncertainty.

   Owing to the organization of process, the full-fledged states still should be
   constructed as that that is now, it substantially the ersatz which is carrying
   out the state functions there. It is still too weak fully to operate the
   republics, but we mean already enough that it could be pushed in structure of
   other state with impunity. Certainly, there is a position that if Kiev will
   agree to a number of conditions, it will be already other Ukraine (not
   national, but federalizirovanny) and there it is possible to push Donbass
   quietly. But it only the desirable. The reality such is, every day of the state
   construction in LNR (Lugansk), possibility of real return of Donbass to Ukraine
   in any kind, looks ischezayushche improbable.

   There is a mean joke “Donbass merged-merged, and it doesn’t merge”.
   Doesn’t merge because the world already changed and DNR with LNR already became
   a factor of new reality which can’t be cancelled on “click”.

   It is possible to close of course eyes and to pretend, what the republics of
   DNR and LNR aren’t present, and there are ugly abbreviations of special areas
   what is an insignificant trifle but when unrecognized state educations in
   recent years were insignificant? On the contrary, the most part of such
   educations, chances of which survival initially looked doubtfully, finally
   remained. Practice of existence of such educations shows that they are quite
   hardy in the context of those contradictions which provide their emergence.
   Respectively, if certain circumstances and contradictions lead to formation of
   such unrecognized states, without elimination of these circumstances and
   contradictions, it is extremely difficult to beat out from under such
   educations the actual bases the providing their creation and existence. DNR and
   LNR already have such bases. The terrible price is already paid for them:
   “Crisis in Ukraine: ways of recovery from the crisis” – http://russmir
   .info/eko/5559-krizis-na-ukraine-puti-vyhoda-iz-krizisa.html .

   In Washington and Kiev it is understood perfectly and therefore plans of Russia
   to include Donbass in structure of Ukraine for its reorganization in the
   Russian interests aren’t fated to come true as as it stands Donbass for Ukraine
   is already an alien element protivorechushchy essences of modern Ukraine in her
   aktualyykh political realities. Donbass can return to Ukraine only as the
   measured region. On such conditions, is more true without any conditions –
   Ukraine won’t receive Donbass also to it actually such anybody and doesn’t
   offer though just it from Russia is demanded by Obama. Therefore disagreeing
   with plans of Russia for rearrangement of Ukraine and at the same time
   understanding unwillingness of Russia to hand over all positions in Ukraine,
   Kiev can only — continue one war within which there will be a further
   delimitation of Donbass and Ukraine: ” Washington, London and Brussels
   decided to strike blow to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin” -http://ruskline.ru/special_opinion/vashington_london_i_bryussel_reshili_nanesti_udar_po_prezidentu_rossii_vladimiru_putinu/. Therefore I actually
   also don’t support the line that the republics hand over as the logic of war
   pushes them an opposite direction. Especially nobody can distinctly объяснить: -” well will hand
   over Donbass, what it for Russia will change?” That to hand over that
   further? Crimea? Caucasus? Kaliningrad? After all by the text opened already it
   is declared that the question not only in Donbass and will be further the
   Crimea. There is no practical sense to turn the front on Donbass to receive it
   in the Crimea, on the Recop. As there is also no practical opportunity to
   exchange Donbass for the Crimea:” Crimea: way home-3. Continuation of the
   complex analysis of a situation across the Crimea A.P. Sargsyana” – http://rusdozor.ru/2015/03/21/krym-put-na-rodinu-3-prodolzhenie-kompleksnogo-analiza-situacii-po-krymu-a-p-sargsyana/.

   Obama, Merkel and Hollande already clearly designated, the transaction on this
   occasion won’t be. To hand over Donbass to finish war, for a long time not
   option. It is possible either battle (one way or another), or to raise hands.
   Still Russia has no uniform center of planning and decision-making, fight of
   different Kremlin groups proceeds — one try to agree with Ukraine and to hand
   over Donbass (including

   provoking all sounded tendencies), others give to Donbass help and prepare for
   war. As for military operations on Donbass, despite constant “increase of
   degree” of a change didn’t happen yet. It is impossible to speak about
   continuation of “truce” because clashes (mainly near Mariupol and
   Donetsk) happen constantly, shellings of the cities increased (Gorlovka
   especially suffers), concentration of equipment and troops of the opponent
   doesn’t stop, moreover — the Ukrainian UAVs (Bespilotny flying devices)
   everywhere became more active, according to some information Ukrainians prepare
   fighting aircraft for offensive actions. Novorossiya’s militia since the
   beginning of month is up in arm. “A mass outcome” of the Russian
   volunteers (as write some) it isn’t observed, but tendencies to that are. It is
   connected with a number of bad news from DNR and in particular from LNR.
   Problems arise both at certain Russian volunteers, and at voluntary divisions —
   in particular at Yarosh’s “NBP members”. In one cases to divisions
   don’t allow to become stronger and expand (due to replenishments from the
   Russian Federation groups expand to a company, a battalion, but artificially
   squeeze it to a platoon, scattering fighters on other divisions), in other
   cases of people squeeze out, dismiss, and even “to the cellar” send
   (as now “NBP members”). I will tell frankly, on Donbass treat the
   Russian volunteers at least watchfully, owing to their bigger independence
   (and, as a result, not submission to control), than local. Not least it is connected
   with activity of some Moscow curators as we will tell Putin’s adviser – V.
   Surkaov. I can’t confirm, whether Surkov declined personally the leaders of the
   republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to repressions against the Russian volunteers
   (about what E.Limonov and B. Rozhin reported), but I know that
   “curators” in this direction work:” Geopolitical war for
   Ukraine: the Chinese trace” – http://www
   .narodsobor.ru/events/geopolitics/20629-araik-sargsyan-qgeopoliticheskaya-vojna-za-ukrainu-kitajskij-sledq#.VVdKtrntmko .

   I will separately specify, so it turned out not thanks to some to “cunning
   plans of Putin” as I don’t consider that everything developed as it was
   conceived, and it is rather because events on Donbass advanced and overturned
   analytical calculations and calculations. There is no blind belief, in that
   that “we will win despite everything” or desires to think up and
   justify next “the cunning plan of the Kremlin” about which hurry to
   tell all that it looked “even more cunning” and that the opponent
   thought up counteraction measures quicker. I look at logic of this war which
   already as became obviously many, won’t end soon (and it on the present is
   terrible when fully you realize similar prospects) and will have dalekoidushchy
   consequences not only for Donbass, but also for Russia. And if ahead of us
   waits for continuation of war and continuation let of clumsy, but the state
   construction on Donbass, about what Donbass as a part of Ukraine in general can
   there be a speech in foreseeable prospect?” – http://hayojax.am/hy/shows/yerkir-media-tv/yerkri-harc/8361/arayik-sargsyan-26062014.html .

   Arayik Sargsyan, the academician, the Honourable
   Consul of Macedonia in Armenia, the President of Academy of Geopolitics.

   http://knowpc.ru/razgovory-obo-vsem/vojna-v-ukraine-vygodna-evrope/

2. Information about the state of Iraq’s oil sector .

   Arayik Sargsyan, Academician, President of the Geopolitical Academy, Honorary Consul of Macedonia to Armenia.

   Jordanian Minister of Energy A.Ensour (Ensour) at a meeting in Amman, January 9, 2014 with his colleague Abdurrahman Al – Luaybi (Luaibi) said that Jordan attaches great importance to accelerate the implementation of the project of construction of the main pipeline (ISPs ) for export Iraqi oil through Jordan .
   The parties discussed the stages of work performed and the discussion focused on the research and tenders, which must be held within the next few months .
   A.Ensour noted the possibility of private sector participation in the project , highlighting the possibility of extending the ISPs to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea.
   Abdurrahman Al – Luaybi said the project would be economically beneficial for Iraq and Jordan , pointing to the possibility of establishing an oil refinery ( refinery) and thermal power plant (TPP) in the city of Aqaba, 330 kilometers south of the capital of Jordan.
   Iraq and Jordan have agreed to build a new MNP during the visit of Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki in Jordan in December 2012…

   However , doing business in Iraq may prevent geopolitical games of the Royal House of Saud and Israel. Israeli officials have admitted trying to dismember Iraq and paralyze the activity of Baghdad in the Arab world and the region.
   The former head of Israel’s General Security Service ( Shin Bet ) Avi Dichter in his speech at the Center for Strategic Studies said that ” Israel’s strategic objective is not to give Iraq to play an active role at the regional level and in the Arab world that can threaten the security of Israel . ”
   Newspaper The Jerusalem Post citing Dichter writes that Israel supports the Iraqi Kurds to form an independent Kurdish state . Tel Aviv pursues this goal since the 1970s …http://vimeo.com/71881109

   http://rusmir.in.ua/pol/5530-krizis-na-ukraine-mozhet-sposobstvovat-primeneniyu-yadernogo-oruzhiya.html

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