The race for the presidency is in full swing.
We have some series contenders and quite a few pretenders all trying to make their way into the 132-room estate that is our nation’s White House. But where are we at today? What’s the skinny? Will Donald Trump repeat as President of the United States of America or will another take his place?
Republicans Who Stand a Chance
No one.
Seriously …
There isn’t a Republican candidate at the moment who has a prayer of overtaking Donald Trump in the Republican Primary. The best chance they have is impeachment. Speaking of which, online sportsbooks have Trump’s odds of impeachment rising as of Wednesday, October 23.
As of just September 29th, the Vegas betting odds that our president would be kicked out of office were sitting at +125. This number is by no means ‘good’ but at least it leans towards ‘no’.
As of Wednesday, October 23 those odds have shifted to -180 on for ‘yes’ he will be impeached, implying a 64.3 percent chance that Pence takes over – ugh … lose-lose.
Now there is talk about Republican Senators engineering impeachment and grooming Mike Pence for the throne … I mean Oval Office. And if this were to happen, would Pence suddenly become the Republican front-runner for office in 2020?
Let’s look at the numbers.
A recent Poll ran through the 22nd of October shows President Trump to be +84 against all other candidates on average. This is a huge spread. The current President has 87 percent of the vote at this point. Sanford holds a minor, 3 percent, Walsh and Weld each hold 1 percent. So, it isn’t hard to imagine Pence stepping in on his first day with more support than the three other candidates combined – if President Trump were to be impeached.
The Donkeys
Joe Biden has by far the most endorsements in the Democratic Primary. But it may be surprising to some that Kamala Harris is in second with 92 points. Elizabeth Warren is actually in 4th on the endorsement points board behind Cory Booker. But the polls tell a different story.
Harris’ campaign seems to have fallen flat and it’s become a three-horse race between Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden leads in most polls as of Oct. 23rd. But there are a few where Warren leads and even a McLaughlin and Associates poll where Sanders is up +3. That said, on average it’s Biden with Warren close behind. The difference between the two is Warren has much more secondary support than Joe Biden.
What does this mean?
Well, as other candidates withdraw, their supporters are more likely to swing to support
Elizabeth Warren than that either Biden or Sanders. If Sanders loses or withdraws, his supporters are much more apt to vote for Warren than Biden. So as the race narrows we are likely to see Elizabeth Warren overtake Biden.
With this in mind, a betting person would take Elizabeth Warren to win the Democratic party, despite what the current polls state. And if there is one person who could take the White House back from the Republicans at this point, it is her.
