What the ‘experts’ say on David Cameron’s claims this morning:
On promises of opt outs from Eurozone bailouts. George Osborne has said, when it comes to the EU forcing the UK to bailout Eurozone countries, the Commission has acted ‘in flagrant breach of the agreement we’d all signed up to’ in 2011.
On the rebate. George Osborne has said: ‘It is not a unilateral decision of the British Treasury or the British Government to just say, “This is our rebate. We are entitled to it. Pay up”. The way this works and has always worked is there is a negotiation with the European Commission’.
On the ability to veto future EU Treaties. George Osborne has said: ‘Rather than stand in your way, or veto the Treaty amendments required, we, in Britain, can support you in the Eurozone make the lasting changes that you need to see strengthen the euro. In return, you can help us make the changes we need to safeguard the interests of those economies who are not in the Eurozone’. David Cameron says: ‘we will not stand in the way of those developments’. His renegotiation (which he claims is ‘legally-binding and irreversible’) requires the UK to ‘facilitate’ Eurozone integration.
On an economic shock hitting the public finances. David Cameron has said that trade will continue after we Vote Leave and we should not believe scaremongering: ‘If we were outside the EU altogether, we’d still be trading with all these European countries, of course we would … Of course the trading would go on … There’s a lot of scaremongering on all sides of this debate. Of course the trading would go on’.
Responding to David Cameron’s comments at an impromptu press conference in London this morning, Douglas Carswell MP said:
‘The In campaign is in a blind panic. David Cameron’s renegotiation was a failure – no-one believes he got a deal worth the paper it was written on. Now people are rejecting his campaign of fear. The Prime Minister says we need a proper debate about the facts but he is too chicken to take on anyone from the Vote Leave campaign head-to-head.
‘David Cameron and George Osborne have both admitted that they have given up our right to veto future EU treaties, that the EU has ignored us in the past over bailouts and they know their guarantees on the renegotiation are about as trustworthy as their mate Nick Clegg’s pledges on tuition fees. On 23 June, the public have a choice: if they trust David Cameron and other EU politicians they should vote “in”. If not, they should Vote Leave to take back control. ‘
The six claims made by the Prime Minister: The Facts
- The Prime Minister claims that the UK is not liable to bailout the Eurozone. The Eurozone has broken its promises before, as Osborne has admitted.
- The Prime Minister claims the UK rebate is secure. Osborne completely disagrees with him.
- The Prime Minister claims that we have not given up our right to veto new EU Treaties. His own renegotiation agreement and Chancellor have contradicted this.
- The Prime Minister claims that the MFF is falling and the UK will block its increase. This is unreal.
- The Prime Minister claims we can block an EU army. We cannot block EU permanent structured cooperation in defence and Cameron may have promised support for the proposal to Germany as part of his renegotiation.
- The Prime Minister claimed there would not be an additional £8 billion to spend on public services. There would be £10.6 billion. Not even David Cameron believes there will be an economic shock.
The Prime Minister claims that the UK is not liable to bailout the Eurozone. The Eurozone has broken its promises before, as Osborne has admitted.
Article 122(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU still allows the Council of Ministers by qualified majority to ‘grant… Union financial assistance’ as part of ad hoc bailouts of the Eurozone.
The European Court has consistently ruled that the establishment of Eurozone-only bailout mechanisms does not affect the EU’s powers under article 122(2). In 2012, it ruled that: ‘The establishment of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism, a eurozone-only fund] does not affect the power of the Union to grant, on the basis of art.122(2) TFEU, ad hoc financial assistance to a Member State when it is found that that Member State is in difficulties or is seriously threatened with severe difficulties caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences beyond its control’. In September 2015, the EU’s General Court confirmed that article 122(2) ‘enables the Union to grant ad hoc financial assistance to a Member State‘.
Until this Treaty provision is changed, the UK will be liable to bailout the Eurozone. The Treaties remain unamended.
The Prime Minister previously claimed that he had secured a deal to protect the UK from Eurozone bailouts, saying ‘look too at what we have achieved already. Ending Britain’s obligation to bail-out Eurozone members’.
This promise was quickly broken. On 17 July 2015, contrary to the 2011 agreement, the Commission decided to use the EFSM to grant €7.16 billion in bridging finance to Greece. George Osborne later accepted that the Commission had acted ‘in flagrant breach of the agreement we’d all signed up to’ in 2011‘.
The new deal is in a document that is widely regarded to not be legally binding. The EU has the legal right to force the UK into Eurozone bailouts and will break its promises again.
The Prime Minister claims the UK rebate is secure. Osborne disagrees with him.
Not even George Osborne believes David Cameron. He has said: ‘It is not a unilateral decision of the British Treasury or the British Government to just say, “This is our rebate. We are entitled to it. Pay up”. The way this works and has always worked is there is a negotiation with the European Commission‘.
Osborne has said that: ‘the rebate involves a discussion between member states and the European Commission, which is why we were discussing with the Commission, in parallel, the size of the British rebate… If the rebate was always going to apply, and to such an extent, why did neither he nor any other Labour Member raise the matter?… we were engaged in the intensive discussions to nail down the rebate… it was not clear that the rebate would apply’.
David Cameron previously said the Blair Government’s plan to ‘give up’ the rebate in return for CAP reform ‘is not an unreasonable position’.
The Executive Director of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, Will Straw, has previously called for the rebate to be scrapped in its entirety.
The only legal basis for the rebate is a 2014 Council Decision which expires five years after the referendum.
The Prime Minister claims that we have not given up our right to veto new EU Treaties. His own renegotiation agreement and Chancellor have contradicted this.
David Cameron’s renegotiation agreement (which he claims is ‘legally binding and irreversible’) states that: ‘Member States not participating in the further deepening of the economic and monetary union will not create obstacles to but facilitate such further deepening’. It also obliges the UK to ‘refrain from measures which could jeopardise the attainment of the objectives of economic and monetary union.’. This means the UK is committing to support the planned new EU Treaty.
The Five Presidents’ Report contains the Commission’s proposals for this new Treaty. These include more powers over ‘social security systems’, ‘company law’, ‘insolvency law’, ‘property rights’ and taxation.
The Government was clear it gave up the veto in return for other member states agreeing to its renegotiation. George Osborne said: ‘So let me be candid: there is a deal to be done and we can work together. Rather than stand in your way, or veto the Treaty amendments required, we, in Britain, can support you in the Eurozone make the lasting changes that you need to see strengthen the euro. In return, you can help us make the changes we need to safeguard the interests of those economies who are not in the Eurozone’.
David Cameron has said ‘we will not stand in the way of those developments, as long as we can be sure that there are mechanisms in place to ensure that our own interests are fully protected’. He believes this happened during his renegotiation.
There is also no prospect of the UK vetoing accession Treaties, which the Prime Minister and Foreign Office strongly support.
The Prime Minister claims that the MFF is falling and the UK will block its increase. This is unreal.
If we vote to remain we will have lost all of our political capital. It is commonly accepted that the EU has overspent and will need to increase its spending ceilings.
A briefing note for the European Parliament states that ‘implementation of the 2014-2020 MFF has already proven to be challenging, even in its first two years… This raises questions about the functioning of the MFF through to 2020, and, in particular, about the adequacy of the agreed spending ceilings… the budgetary authority has already had to resort to almost all the special, “last-resort”, levers and flexibility instruments provided for in the MFF Regulation’.
British politicians have constantly failed to use the veto on the MFF. In 2005 when Tony Blair went to negotiate the MFF he had a veto and promised to secure fundamental changes. He ended up securing no reform but gave up half of the UK’s rebate.
The Prime Minister claims we can block an EU army. We cannot block EU permanent structured cooperation in defence and Cameron may have promised support for the proposal to Germany as part of his renegotiation.
The EU Treaties allow other member states to establish ‘permanent structured cooperation’ in defence. The UK has no power to block this step which would undermine NATO.
It has also been widely reported that David Cameron did a deal with Germany in which he agreed to support a euro army in return for the EU agreeing to his renegotiation.
The Prime Minister claimed there would not be an additional £8 billion to spend on public services. There would be £10.6 billion. Not even David Cameron believes there will be an economic shock.
He was right. The UK’s net contribution to the EU in 2015 was £10.6 billion, not £8 billion.
Claims about a shock and decline in trade which would hit the public finances have been disputed by David Cameron: ‘If we were outside the EU altogether, we’d still be trading with all these European countries, of course we would … Of course the trading would go on … There’s a lot of scaremongering on all sides of this debate. Of course the trading would go on’.
