Obama Iran Deal: “Goodbye Israel”

1. Saudi Arabia already in crisis.

   Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.

   The budget deficit of Saudi Arabia can reach 20% of GDP. The country for the first time for the last eight years started borrowing money in the financial markets. One of bonded loans was placed this week. But experts believe that the saved-up reserves to the kingdom will last still for a long time, and Riyadh won’t refuse the policy of strengthening of oil export. This week Saudi Arabia placed state bonds for 20 billion reals ($5,3 billion). It is the second loan for this summer — the size June made 15 billion reals ($4 billion). The kingdom can attract $27 billion by the end of the current year. Money was necessary for saudita because of double falling of prices of oil, receipts from which export form almost all income of the country. In 2015 the budget was under construction of calculation of price of oil in $105 for barrel. We will remind that at Saudi Arabia the income from export of oil makes more than 90% of state revenues. Deficiency of the state budget of the country, according to experts of Academy, can make 20% of GDP this year. These are about $140 billion. For comparison: the budget deficit of Russia is predicted in the current year of 3,4% of GDP, or about $40 billion. Saudi Arabia closed the arisen hole at the expense of an expenditure of the saved-up reserves until recently. Since August, 2014 for maintenance of the public expenditures the kingdom spent $65 billion from the state reserves which $672 billion equal at the moment. It should be noted that the budgetary problems of Saudi Arabia turned out to be consequence her politicians in the oil market. The kingdom supports the excess offer of oil and low price level to keep the market share and as much as possible to complicate strengthening of production of slate oil in the USA. And here the IMF considers that to make real GDP growth next year — 2,7%. In many respects, it manage to achieve due to maintenance of high level of state expenses, including due to decumulation of reserves. $672 billion very impressive sum, but experience of other countries ( including Russia) shows that it can be spent very quickly, especially, if to support state expenses at the current level. Therefore the kingdom, most likely, will continue to borrow money in the market.For Russia it not the best signal. Present forecasts of the government assume an increase in prices for oil next year and if it isn’t, the budget will continue to be under pressure. And reserves at Russia are almost twice less, than at Saudi Arabia.

   Besides the country is under sanctions, and economic growth negative. All this does the Russian economy more sensitive to falling of oil quotations, than economy of the Saudi kingdom.

   Same strengthens positions of Riyadh at negotiations with Moscow on such sensitive topics as Syria, Iran and Palestine. Saudita do all new trade offers to the Kremlin that that refused support of the Syrian president Bashar Assad.

   At the negotiations of Foreign Ministers Adel al-Dzhubeyra and Sergey Lavrov completed the other day, it was talked, for example, of the contract for delivery of the Russian «Iskander » missile systems. Riyadh also offered investments into $10 billion. Thus, as experts of Academy of Geopolitics believe that the change on the Syrian question is quite possible. However, are for this purpose necessary not only the Saudi billions, but also positive shift in the Russian-American relations as in the Kremlin perceiveRiyadh only as the ally of Washington.

   Arayik Sargsyan, the President of Academy of Geopolitics, the academician, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia.

2. U.S. Fed and Deutsche Bank against

   “Putinomika”

   Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.

   “Putinomika” – definition of economic

   policy of the Russian Federation at the time of board of the president Putin –

   Arayik Sargsyan.

   Nearly a year ago our experts

   from Academy of Geopolitics gave an assessment to geopolitical game of the

   German chancellor Angela Merkel in the Ukrainian crisis:” that will be

   with EU countries if this winter Russia in response to sanctions of the EU

   stops selling the gas to Europeans?Deutsche Bank —

   the checked “soldier of the empire” (“the empire of

   dollar”) and typical “a dog of war” (financial war) so his

   initial national identity thus has no value. Money not only “doesn’t

   smell”, they also have no homeland. Not to consider as the homeland

   “country of origin”. For dollars the homeland is a press of FRS, and

   at all not the United States of America where they only work with “a legal

   instrument of payment”. Including — pay work of state machinery of the USA

   which part is also DFS stated above.

   Financial police of the USA began war against those Russian clients who as

   a result financial operations, “doubtful” for this

   “empire”, took out abroad $6 billion. You know, who these clients?It isn’t excluded that on Deutsche Bank guys from DFS in parallel will

   write out any impressive penalty as they already repeatedly did it with other

   European clients of FRS — for example, with the French Paribas or with the

   British Barclay’s. But it is more as blind and legalizations of payments for

   the “air” credits.

   Some experts call Deutsche Bank’e “candidate number one” for

   repetition of destiny of Lehman Brothers, the American financial institution,

   whose bankruptcy in September, 2008 became the starting mechanism of “the

   first wave” of global system crisis long ago: on balance of Deutsche Bank

   there are securities for the total amount of $75 trillion that approximately in

   20 times more GDP of Germany and almost by 8 times — is more than GDP of the

   European Union. For comparison: at the second in the world on this indicator of

   bank holding JP Morgan — only $5 trillion.

   By comparison of

   these figures the impression is necessarily made that in Deutsche Bank the

   largest transnational financiers specially pumped all “garbage” that

   to merge it at the right time. And it can mean not only full-scale financial

   war of the West against Russia, but also the beginning of “the second

   wave” of global crisis.

   In general the situation with Deutsche Bank means neither more nor

   less — the announcement of full-scale financial and economic war of the West

   against Russia. Arayik Sargsyan, the academician, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia, the president of Academy of Geopolitics. http://rusdozor.ru/2015/07/27/frs-ssha-i-deutsche-bank-protiv-putinomiki/

3. SAUDI ARABIA ON THE VERGE OF CRISIS.
   Expert assessment of Academy of Geopolitics.

   Kadyrov’s trip to Saudi Arabia isn’t too similar to private visit though the pretext looks that. Thus especially for the guest the entrance to a sacred mosque was open – that doesn’t look something absolutely exotic, but also not for each it do.

   Kadyrov’s meeting with actually acting as the king though the prince Mokhkhamed bin Salman who is formally standing on the third step of hierarchy too isn’t something ordinary. On the volume of the powers concentrated in Mohammed’s hands he looks definitely not the third. Its level of meetings – not the Russian governors, but the top Russian government. President, prime minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs.

   In general, never also didn’t disappear that Kadyrov and elite has dynasties Al-Saudov quite labor relations, however now they are on the highest of possible levels.

   There are two possible options of an explanation for the events: or Kadyrov carries out Putin’s order, and the outlined turn in the relations between the management of KSA and Russia is recognized necessary in both capitals, or Kadyrov acts independently, having covered from questions of Moscow with especially private character of a trip.

   The first explanation looks very unpleasant – Saudi Arabia from Russia now needs only one: its introduction in the coalition against IGIL. The coalition in which Saudi Arabia is the key country, looks in fight against the Islamic state extremely faintly: the third of the Saudi army collected on the Yemen border hardly beats off from guerrilla and not too organized raids of husit. As she will be at war with IGIL groups, simply to foresee – in any way.

   The United States won’t rescue saudit. Israelis and Pakistan – it is possible. But it it should pay for it. In fact, can rescue the Kingdom only Russia. From here and sudden interest of the highest dignitaries of the Kingdom in investments into Russia.

   Generally, the first explanation of a trip of Kadyrov both possible steps of the Kremlin and Al-Saudov towards each other look very unpleasantly. The entry of Russia in this or that form in the coalition against IGIL will automatically lead to that the Islamic state will be simply compelled to attack Russia in a manner, traditional for it, – through surge in acts of terrorism, creation and an aktivizition of the underground, and then and quite operating terrorist cells, and then and groups. War will inevitably come to Russia in such look. Upon Saudi Arabia will simply pay to Putin participation in it with investment money, the real payment should be brought blood of Russians.

   The second explanation too doesn’t look iridescent. The unauthorized trip of Kadyrov and his summit can mean that he looks for options in case of sharp complication of the own relations with Moscow. It is quite possible: the open setups which began with Nemtsov’s murder personally on it are covered on the top so far. The built system of the relations between Moscow and Grozny at all their strange character guarantee relative tranquillity in the region. The actual tribute which is rendered by the Kremlin, is inevitable in a situation, when there is no other policy. Thus it is obvious that to contain all North Caucasus as Chechnya, Moscow has no means – them even in corpulent years of blessed prices of oil it wasn’t far for one hundred dollars. Now they aren’t present absolutely.

   It is possible that just the usykhaniye of deep streams and compels Kadyrov to look for new sources. And in this case he can offer the Kingdom that is required to it – the armed force capable to neutralize IGIL. It is unlikely to win, of course, but it is essential to reduce threat – yes. Only saudita will pay for it not to Moscow any more, and directly to Grozny.

   More than obviously that such succession of events is possible only in one case – if Kadyrov doesn’t believe any more in Putin’s ability to keep in power or a situation in the Russian economy such is that he is compelled to undertake preventive measures for prevention of a collapse of a situation in Chechnya which got used to generous injections. In fact, his authority keeps only on this generous tribute from Moscow. There is no tribute – to it there will be questions.

   This explanation too looks is very disturbing: Chechnya can replace a syuzeren only in one way – through an exit from submission to Moscow. And it besides calls into question into the only thing of achievement of Putin for all his 15-year term of stay in power – stability in the North Caucasus, let and at the price of payment of a tribute.

   Is, of course, and other explanations of a trip of Kadyrov – up to that he indeed decided to visit simply the Kaaba and paid a tribute of respect to the local native management. However, in that case the level of an afterfeast of respect would be not above the governor of the province Khalid bin Feysal – the son of one of the previous kings. It too the prince and too the member of a dynasty, but to it it is very far to tops of the power in the Kingdom.

   Arayik SARGSYAN, the academician, the president of Academy of Geopolitics, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia. .http://russmir.info/pol/6664-saudovskaya-araviya-na-grani-krizisa.html

4. US may provoke escalation of situation around Iran – expert. Arayik Sargsyan, academician, President of geopolitical academy, Hororary Consul Of Macedonia. February 07, 2012 | 14:59 YEREVAN. – The U.S. may provoke escalation of situation around Iran, Vice-Chairman of the Russian Geopolitics Problems Academy Arayik Sargsyan said at a press conference on Tuesday. According to him, statements by the U.S. senior officials testify that information war is already in progress. Moreover, Iranian nuclear scientists and experts die, thus terrorist attacks are committed in the territory of the Islamic Republic. The expert believes there can be several scenarios of clashes: Saudi-Arabia-Iran, Turkey-Iran or Israel-Iran. “Will Israel attack Iran? Everyone expects provocations, not necessary in the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible to occur in the territory of the U.S. Something resembling 9/11, as a result Iranian special service will be blamed,” the expert said. As for the question if Azerbaijan will risk taking what it does not possess and launch the second Karabakh campaign, the expert did not rule out such possibility adding that Baku is openly speaking about Iranian territories. http://www.clubvi.ru/news/2014/06/29/36%20sargsan2/

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