The EarthWise think tank has released a paper on the efficacy of “Net Zero” and the conditions for its successful implementation.
Net Zero
“Net Zero as an ideological and conceptual principle is essentially a viable plan for sustainable human coexistence with the environment, however its implementation is impossible without multiple variables being realised.
“The UK’s Net Zero targets refer to the legally binding commitment to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, as part of efforts to mitigate climate change. This goal was established under the Climate Change Act 2008, amended in 2019 to include the Net Zero target.
“The most important variable preventing Net Zero from being implemented is overpopulation. Not only is overpopulation a major problem within the UK, but it is also one that blights the globe.
“Without the drastic reduction in human population numbers globally and nationally, there is no point in attempting to implement Net Zero, because the sheer number of overpopulating humans make it unrealistic and untenable to achieve the necessary targets.
“We estimate through computational modelling that the global human population would have to be reduced by 80-90% for the carbon reduction targets to be successfully implemented. Without a reduction of the global population to 800 million humans from 8 billion, there would not be any point in trying to implement Net Zero because the number of polluting humans on earth would be too numerous.
“For the UK, a 90% reduction in the population would result in a population of approximately 6.7 million from 67 million. This level of population would be an ideal condition for the successful implementation of Net Zero. The last time the UK’s population was around 6.7 million was in the late medieval period or early modern period, likely between the 14th and 16th centuries. This was before significant population growth driven by the Agricultural Revolution and later the Industrial Revolution.
“Once there is a reduction in population then, and only then, can the global population transition from fossil fuels to renewables like wind, solar, and nuclear and expand offshore wind capacity to 50 GW by 2030. The global population level, once reaching a sustainable level, must be maintained at that level with strict enforcement.
“The reduced level of population will also ensure a sustainable and achievable transfer to the complete electrification of cars, buses, and trains. Hydrogen and carbon capture technologies will also be able to be implemented more efficiently with a better chance of success. Carbon emissions from livestock and farming would be reduced as sustainable farming practices will be implemented.
“We reiterate. Without a sustainable reduction of the global population, it is impossible to implement the necessary targets successfully. It is folly to even attempt to do so without a reduction in levels of overpopulation. Under the current global conditions, it is thus futile to even attempt to implement Net Zero.”
